Iraqi fuel oil travels by tanker across Syria to Baniyas. Syrian Renewables estimates roughly 138,000 tonnes of CO₂e from tanker diesel burned on the Syrian leg from April through August 2026 under its reference scenario. This is a modelled estimate, not a measured or official inventory figure.
The Syrian Petroleum Company announced a first 299-tanker convoy through al-Tanf on 1 April and later confirmed the loading of an Iraqi fuel-oil shipment for export at Baniyas. This analysis concerns transport emissions, not combustion of the cargo.
Traffic rose sharply
A series attributed to the Energy Research Unit puts volume on the Syrian route at 686,000 barrels in April and 5.91 million in August, an 8.6-fold increase. April–August totals 21.106 million barrels. The series also reports 254,000 barrels in March; that month is excluded here because the first publicly announced crossing was on 1 April. The scope of the March figure needs clarification.
The estimate includes loaded outbound driving, an empty return and engine idling on the Syrian leg. It reaches about 38,600 tonnes CO₂e in August. Combined low and high assumptions for cargo per truck, route mix, fuel use and idling yield a broad sensitivity range of approximately 75,000–270,000 tonnes for April–August. These are conditional scenarios, not a statistical confidence interval.
What the number does not include
The calculation excludes combustion of the fuel-oil cargo, the Iraqi leg, maritime shipping and upstream diesel emissions. It does not quantify local air pollutants because vehicle and fuel specifications are not sufficiently documented.
Physical emissions on Syrian roads are distinct from national inventory attribution: IPCC guidance generally allocates road-fuel emissions to the country where the fuel is sold. Complete purchase records for the diesel used here are unavailable. A full methodology report will be offered separately when complete.
Source: SANA, Iraqi fuel oil loaded for export at Baniyas
Source: monthly volume series reported by Al Araby Al Jadeed
Method: IPCC 2006 national inventory guidance
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